There's some funky stuff going on with pre-election polling.

First, there's the story that pollsters don't take into account people without home ground phone lines. Also, remember that political polls are taken of those who are likely voters, which in many instances means that they've voted in the previous (presidential) election. This means that newly registered voters aren't being counted in some of these poll results. Both of these factors leads to the so called "youth vote" to be undercounted. Now, there's some question as to what "youth vote" exactly is, but I'm going to label that as 18-29, which sounds reasonable to me.

Now, if you're into online politics, you've probably come across http://www.electoral-vote.com. I just logged on there a little while ago, and the votemaster made some very insightful remarks, which I've copied & pasted. (Note: my emphases)

Some bad news for the polling business. Strategic Vision (R) has a new poll in Ohio showing Bush ahead 52% to 43% there. However, there is also a Lake Snell Perry (D) poll showing the race there to be an exact tie, with both candidates at 46%. It is becoming increasingly clear that the pollsters are producing the results that the people paying the bills want to hear. Even pollsters who were once thought to be above suspicion are now suspicious. Gallup, for example, is now normalizing its samples to include 40% Republicans, even though the 2000 exit polls showed the partisan distribution to be 39% Democratic, 35% Republican. There is scant evidence that the underlying partisan distribution has changed much since then. Other pollsters also normalize their data, but most don't say how. Normalizing the sample to ensure the proper number of women, elderly voters, etc. is legitimate provided that the pollster publicly states what has been done.

That's some interesting news. Basically, between what the votemaster tells us above, and the undercounting of the youth vote, which is traditionally left-leaning, Republicans are being overcounted in the polls. Now, combine that with the fog surrounding the new voting machines, and we just might not know anything. I really hope someone will be doing some good exit polling.

There's also an interesting audio report by NPR/Morning Edition's Steve Inskeep about political polling, which includes an interview with the head of the Gallup Organization, one of the major polling firms. You can get some insight on how some polls are run and such.